Food and Drink in Trouble

Pre-Covid when AC Services Southern published a weekly blog, we ran a series on the food and drink in trouble in the world due to climate change and disease. We were reminded of these, last month, when the Economist published an article on how a “warming planet threatens the world’s favourite drug”.

Aside from the catchy attention-seeking headline, the article confirmed the changes that will be coming for coffee.

Healthy Food

Sadly, coffee is not alone as anyone trying to buy olive oil will know. Last year prices rose by over 70%. And this on top of hefty increases the year before.

Spain is the world’s biggest olive oil producer and accounts for 70% of European consumption and close to 45% of the world’s. It’s harvest typically takes place in October and November. With Spain in its second year of drought, 2022’s bad harvest has been followed by one of the worst on record.

Using alternatives will cut down on the agreed health-giving benefits of olive oil consumption. Sadly, this may become necessary.

Drug-connected Drink

Coffee is grown in over 70 countries. More than 2B cups are drunk every day. Caffeine is by some measures the most popular recreational drug. Directly and indirectly, it supports the livelihoods of some 125M people.

Again, global warming threatens the areas in which it can be grown. Brazil is the world’s largest producer. Yet in 70 years’ time, between a third and three quarters of its coffee-producing land will become unusable.

The bigger problem is that the most popular bean Arabica, accounts for 70% of the beans sold. It is incredibly fussy as to where it will grow- it needs temperatures to remain constant between 18-23°C. A solution would be to grow it higher up. In Ethiopia, some plantations are already 600m higher. But this solution only works to a certain height, given changes in soil and slopes which affect growth, survival and harvest.

The second most popular bean is Robusta. This is less fussy to grow but is known for its bitter taste. This does not go down well with coffee snobs, which is why most ends up in instant coffee.

While there are over 130 other coffee varieties, ramping them up to fit the Arabica void may not work. In part this is due to taste, but also to their abilities to withstand disease such as coffee-rust fungus or wilt. A bean called Excelsa with an equivalent flavour to Arabica was able to overcome the fungus threat and expanded widely in Africa in the 1910s-30s, but then was devastated by wilt.

Alternatives and Substitution

Many alternatives are now being considered to solve the coffee problem. Sadly, even if a winner is found it will be at least 10 years from selection to commercial production.

Unlike olive oil for many uses, there isn’t a simple substitution for catering colleagues. But as our company comic put it; the positive is they might no longer be in the biggest drug trade in the world!

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